Unrepentant

As Yeats almost said, “Things fall apart; the bullpen cannot hold.”

For a while there, I was wondering if I should apologize to Jackie. After all, it was the Mariners’ pitchers who gave up those three runs in the eighth inning to give her Orioles hope.

But on further reflection, I don’t think I will. Even after the Ms won the game, the Orioles still had a 57-55 record. Even after winning the game, the Mariners were still eight games under .500. The Ms just needed the win more. And that whole “home teams won all fifteen games” thing is kinda neat. You all know how much I enjoy seeing something that’s never happened in baseball before.

Something else I’m not going to apologize for: Yesterday’s Mariners’ victory over the Orioles. The Os are still a game over .500, the Ms’ are still seven games under. And, more importantly, in a disappointing season, the Mariners gave their fans something to be unequivocally delighted about. Rather, pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma did it.

I talked about no hitters last year when Tim Lincecum did it for the Giants, so I won’t repeat any of the general facts here. A few specific facts: Kuma’s no hitter was the first one in the American League since 2012. The previous one was Felix’ perfect game, and the one before that was the unprecedented “six different pitchers contributed” no hitter. So the Mariners have the last three no hitters in the American league. Nifty.

More to the point, it’s a peak performance for Kuma*. For the past couple of seasons, he’s fought injuries that have prevented him from showing his full potential. It’s a relief to see him overcome his problems and remind us all why we love him.

* I’m on record as believing that no hitters and perfect games can’t be credited entirely to the pitcher, and I stand by that. But even with all the help the team provides in the field, it still takes a pitcher at the absolute upper edge of his abilities–as well as a lot of luck–to make it happen.

So, sorry Jackie. No apologies.

But your boys can rest up on their day off today and enjoy the perfect weather here in the Bay Area. Tomorrow they face the As; I hereby give them permission to sweep the series–regardless of the possible negative impact on the Mariners’ planned September miracle–because that’s just how I feel about the As.

The Mariners also have today off–they’re heading for Boston–and I’ll spend today savoring yesterday’s display of brilliance.

Time Goes By So Fast

Here we are, roughly a quarter of the way through the season. (It’s hard to target the actual quarter point. Scheduling oddities, weather delays, and games scheduled across a ten hour range and four timezones mean that the only time all teams have completed the same number of games are before the season starts and after it ends. Note that a quarter of the schedule would actually 40.5 games, so if we were going for absolute precision, we would have to hit halfway through every team’s forty-first game. So not going to happen.)

As I write this, before any games have started on Tuesday, the Tigers have played 40 games and the White Sox and Diamondbacks have played 46. Everyone else is somewhere between those extremes, so we’re about as close as we’re going to get.

This is the point in the season where the official litany changes from “It’s still early!” to “There’s Plenty of Baseball Left!” For the teams struggling to stay conscious, TPoBL means “We can still turn it around,” while for the current front-runners, it’s more of a cautionary reminder: no division or wild card lead is safe at this point, even Detroit’s current 7 game lead. You might think that’s intuitively obvious, but to many fans, that doesn’t seem to be the case. The old mutual fund disclaimer* applies in spades. Just ask the Giants’ fans. Last year at this point in the schedule, the Giants were 25-20, one game behind the Diamondbacks, and visions of a third World Series in four years were playing the part of sugarplums in the fans’ dreams. At the end of the year, their record was 76-86, 16 games behind the division-winning (and much-hated) Dodgers. That’s why they play 162 games. Broadcasters are overly-fond of reminding us, the season is not a sprint. Annoying as the constant refrain may be, it’s certainly the truth. Anything can happen in a stretch that long.

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Giants, by the way, are currently 28-17, leading their division by three games. Fans, eager to grasp straws are pointing out that their World Series victories came in 2010 and 2012. “Surely,” they cry “the pattern is clear: even-numbered years are our years to shine!”

What else is going on? Well, let’s see. Last year’s playoff darling Pittsburgh Pirates are currently 18-25, hoping to climb back into relevance by the All Star Break and then make a late run at the division.

The Mariners have put together a baffling combination of stellar victories and hideous losses and currently sit one game under .500–exactly where most pre-season forecasts pegged them. This, I might add (in a totally non-partisan fashion, of course) with the majority of their expected starting pitchers beginning the season on the disabled list. In their case, TPoBL means “If we can stay close to .500 until they’re all back, we could do something amazing.” Kindly bystanders will refrain from pointing out that it really doesn’t matter who’s pitching if your batters go 1 for 30 or so with runners in scoring position…

Like the Mariners, the Orioles have been playing yo-yo games with their record. In their case, though, they’re currently two games over .500 and only half a game behind everyone’s favorite team to hate, the Yankees. TPoBL, to them means “Keep it up, see who we can pick up at the All Star Break, and watch the magic happen.”

Side note: If the playoffs started today, the AL would be represented by the Yankees, Tigers, As, Angels, and Orioles. The NL would have the Braves, Brewers*, Giants, Rockies and either the Cardinals or Nationals. That’s three, maybe four (depending on the results of the Cards/Nats elimination game), of last year’s playoff teams.

* This season’s feel-good team, the role held by the Pirates last year? Milwaukee has but a single World Series appearance. That was in 1982, and they lost in seven games to the Cardinals. But don’t anoint them just yet: The Nationals joined the league in 1969 (as the Montreal Expos) and have never been to the World Series. Washington’s last World Series was in 1933, when the then Washington Senators lost to the then New York Giants. Kinda sounds like the Nationals should be the feel-good team, right? Maybe. In 1961, the Senators moved to Minneapolis and became the Twins, who have six World Series appearances, most recently winning it in 1991. The next incarnation of the Senators moved to Texas in 1972, where they have two World Series appearances (2010 and 2011). So if nothing changes over the next 119 (plus or minus 3) games, I’m going to hand the palm to the Brewers.

But really, who says there’s no room for hope? If 60% of the playoff teams change every year, there’s plenty of opportunity for last year’s cellar dwellers to turn it around. Why, just look at last year’s whipping dogs, the Marlins (.383) and Astros (.315)! So far this season, the Marlins are at .511 (23-22), squarely in the chase for the NL East, and the Astros are a blistering .378, on pace to lose 100 games… Oh. Uh, hey guys? There’s Plenty of Baseball Left!