And here we are at the beginning of the season again. All the signs are there: reminders that “everyone is 0-0,” worried perusals of the weather report for such tropical climates as Milwaukee and Cleveland, my semi-annual haircut…
As usual, the proverbial anyone and everyone are making their predictions for the season. Jackie, who is not just anyone or everyone, has hers up. Not to take anything away from her panel of experts, but I entertain some doubts about their conclusions.
So I’m going to pretend to be anyone and everyone myself, offering my own prediction. Last year, my Sooper-Scientific Algorithm, based largely on margin of victory had a forty percent success rate calling the playoff teams. That’s actually pretty good. This year, I’ve applied a few tweaks to the methodology. My goal is to get over .500. (What can I say? It’s a rebuilding year.)
MLB has thrown a bit of a monkey wrench into the works, however. In years past, we’ve been given the spectacle of a game the night before Opening Day. It didn’t affect my process last year, since the two teams involved, the Cardinals and Cubs, took an off day, so all teams had one played one game when I ran the numbers. This year, we got three games on Sunday, and only four of the teams took yesterday off; as a result, the Rays and Blue Jays have two games under their belts. Fortunately, Toronto won both games, so we’ll simply use their combined numbers for the two games and treat it as one 10-6 victory.
Also, note that two games were postponed. The Giants/Brewers game went on as scheduled, despite a raging blizzard–hooray for domed stadiums–but the Astros/Yankees and Red Sox/Indians games were scrubbed because of “inclement weather” and “cold and wet” respectively*. I’m not going to lose any sleep over that, however. I’m going to assert ex cathedra that the Red Sox aren’t going to go cellar to ceiling, the Indians will be lucky to crack .500 again (sorry, Cleveland fans), and the Astros might reproduce last year’s 86-76 record, but it won’t be enough to make the playoffs. The Yankees? Trust me, the Baseball Gods won’t be tasteless enough to let them make the playoffs two years in a row.
* This isn’t the first time the weather in Cleveland has caused problems at the beginning of the season. Ask any Seattle fan about the winter of ’07 when the Mariners/Indians Opening Day game was snowed out. The same thing also happened in 1996 when the Yankees were in town to open the season. Unlike other commentators, I’m not suggesting that all Opening Day games should be scheduled for warmer climates. I think it would make more sense for the entire city of Cleveland to look into relocating–team, fans, Progressive Field, and all–to someplace warmer.
In the AL East, Toronto is the clear division winner, thanks to that 10-6 rout of Tampa Bay. The West is obviously going to Texas, as they’re the only team in the division that managed to win a game. Kansas City and Chicago both won 4-3; to break the tie, I looked at their preseason records*. On that basis, the White Sox take the Central on the strength of their 17-13 preseason, far better than the defending champion Royals’ 14-21 mark. We’ll give KC the first wild card; the second, Jackie will be happy to hear, goes to Baltimore thanks to their 3-2 victory over the Twins.
Moving to the NL, Washington grabs their division by virtue of winning their game, a feat no other NL East team could manage. In the Central, Chicago will be returning to the playoffs. And the West is clearly the toughest division in baseball, with three teams racking up convincing victories. LA will win the division, as shown by their 15-0 trouncing of the Padres. San Francisco’s 12-3 pounding of the Brewers gives them the first Wild Card, and Colorado takes the second by virtue of their 10-5 win over the Diamondbacks.
* As we know, preseason results are a poor predictor of regular season success, but this is a case where poor data is better than no data.
Of course, this is all well and good, but making the playoffs is only the beginning. What everyone really wants to know is who’s going to win the World Series? We’ve got the chance for an all-Chicago World Series this year. Is it going to happen? Can the Giants continue their pattern of winning it all in even-numbered years?
Much as I’d love to answer those questions, I can’t. Not yet.
In the immortal words of every sportscaster who’s covered a baseball game, the season is a marathon, not a sprint. I need a longer baseline than one game to properly assess teams’ ability to handle the additional month of baseball once they make the playoffs.
Tune in again next Tuesday for my fearless World Series predictions.